A post-pandemic world: what will change and what will not

Like everyone else, I’ve been spending a fair amount of time trying to understand the length and impacts of this pandemic. (I will try to write COVID19’s impact on the new world order in a separate post)

The “hammer and dance”
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First, let’s talk about duration. I will be the first to admit that a lot of us were in the phase of denial, thinking that “oh, it’s an outbreak in China” and “oh, it will last only a few months, and things will be back to normal soon.” But in reality, we will likely be living in this “hammer and dance” dynamics for the next couple of years.

At a high level, what the researchers present here is that our social activity will emerge and retreat based on the cyclicality of the virus. Since we can not completely contain or remove COVID19, the situation will continue until the vaccine comes out and is distributed to billions of people worldwide for the next two years.

It’s a very dim vision, I know. But if it’s the truth, we should keep a rational mind and prepare ahead. Specifically, as founders and investors, we should be thinking about the future, what our society needs in which what will change, and what will not.

I will start with something simple — things that won’t change, perhaps never will — the basic human needs. People still need to eat, shelter, work, socialize, feel worthy, love, and be loved.

However, a lot will change, mainly how we deliver/resolve those needs, if not entirely reimagined in the post-COVID world. Whether you agree with it or not, the pandemic is forcing humanity to overhaul our status quo and to reexamine our priorities.

In a way that’s not trying to predict the future, I’m convinced that we are likely to see a few megatrends playing out in the few decades owing to COVID19. I will list the following three as examples.

1. The “stay-at-home economy” would further penetrate our society, taking more values away from the conventional offline economy.

The “stay-at-home economy” category is not new — it consists mostly of the internet companies we see today. Netflix, Zoom, Amazon, Doordash, Facebook in the US, along with Meituan, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent in China, were all founded before the pandemics and are all taking the tailwinds.

But that’s not all. Some of the “tougher” categories would be cracked: Grocery, higher education, healthcare, mobile payment, cloud-kitchen, fitness, etc. In a post-pandemic world, how people buy, learn, care, pay, eat, and work out will be changed in an accelerated fashion.

A months-long window of habit-forming is a powerful thing. Just when the global B2C opportunities were nearing to the tail end in 2018 /2019, I expect we might see a new breed of “stay-at-home” companies that will be created in the next few years and completely reimagine the way that we live.

The “losers” owing to the pandemics are the traditional economy consisting of restaurants, shopping malls, gyms, office spaces, and so on. Their values are being squeezed out and will have to find a new place to go. What this means is that the “offline economy” will either have to embrace the digitalization more aggressively or compete harder with new offerings. I don’t think restaurants, theaters, airlines would go away, despite popular beliefs. Instead, they would be “upgraded,” perhaps much more “personalized,” catering for a new type of experience. That takes me to my second prediction.

2. Social norms will never be the same. In-person time will be “luxurious.”

Many years following the potentially two-year-long pandemic, we will continue to keep our distance with each other. Handshaking is likely not going to happen in most social settings. We will start to see in-person meetings much like a “luxurious” experience, reserving it only to those we love, care for, and consider important.

By “luxurious,” I don’t mean the service will be expensive; it may very well be affordable and minimalist — it just means that psychologically, people are going to set aside a special place for the in-person time. And they would want it to be unique, well planned, and about who they are.

I don’t know what format and at what price this new type of service will be offered. And I don’t know how technology would be leveraged to achieve a reasonable scale such that more people will be able to enjoy it. But I know there will be needs for it. And people will pay for it.

3. Digitalization and AI automation will be accelerated

During (and after) this pandemic, most enterprises worldwide are (and will continue to be) pressured on two ends.

First, the frontend. Following consumers’ demand for digital experience, companies will be replacing a more considerable portion of their “fat infrastructure” (e.g., physical space, human-interacting staff) with leaner tech stacks (e.g., cloud, bots). For instance, certain restaurants might not need to rent a full venue to serve their customers. Instead, they would open shops on delivery apps. Physicians might only see patients in person on a very selected basis, with most people comfortable with telehealth service going forward.

We have seen this consumer digitization trend taking place in China over the past ten years in areas like food delivery, remote health, and mobile payment. However, it would be fascinating to see the US is finally getting on the transformation. Tremendous values will be generated as companies in various verticals are switching to a new “interface.”

Second — probably a more important point — we would expect businesses worldwide to be challenged on the backend- the company operation side: e.g., logistics, manufacturing, warehousing, sales, marketing, recruiting, planning, etc. What it means is that as the economy takes on further downward pressure over the next few years, companies will have to work out a more efficient, automated way to operate on the backend, *while* many of them are forced to adopt a more digital frontend.

This represents a significant challenge and opportunity for enterprise software companies. For one, it will push B2B companies to demonstrate their ROI even more. The nice-to-have “vitamin” B2B solutions would be washed out, quickly. And two, just like a sick patient in need of good medicine, corporate customers are more eager to experience and try new solutions, particularly solutions that can solve their transformation dilemma. But the catch here is that you will have to show results quickly.

On the backend, a mere “digitalization” or “change of the interface” is not enough. For example, with manufacturing, it has never been about making digitalized records but rather how to use that digitalized information to make intelligent decisions, or better yet to automate certain tasks so that efficiency can be created. We are seeing startups like PlusOne Robotics, Kubit.ai that are taking an AI-first approach to demonstrate such ROI through automation, and will expect to see more.

In all honesty, the solutions will continue to come and evolve, but in the enterprise space, market readiness is the key. In a post-pandemic world, most enterprise customers worldwide will not only be ready but will demand a new form of software or solutions that will help with the automation of business tasks. It goes beyond “digitalizing” or “moving to the cloud,” it will push us into a new era of enterprise tech that is enabled by AI and automation.

Parting Thoughts

Like every generation ahead of us who have gone through famine, wars, and the Great Depression, we are experiencing our own crisis. In Chinese, crisis (危机）is written as “danger and opportunity” in a single word. It cannot describe what we are going through any better. It is a tragic occurrence worldwide, but it’s also a forceful catalyst for our society to evolve, improve, and adopt a new, more reflective norm. When we look at humanity’s history, we have always come out the other end, stronger and more unified than ever before.
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And this time is no different.

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以下由谷歌翻译器翻译： 

像其他所有人一样，我一直在花大量的时间试图了解这种流行病的持续时间和影响。 （我将在另一篇文章中尝试写出COVID19对新世界秩序的影响）

“锤子与舞蹈”

首先，让我们谈谈持续时间。 我将是第一个承认我们很多人处于否认状态的人，认为“哦，这是中国的爆发”和“哦，它只会持续几个月，而一切很快就会恢复正常” 。” 但实际上，未来几年我们可能会生活在这种“锤子和舞蹈”的动态中。
从较高的层次上讲，研究人员在这里的展现的是，我们的社会活动将根据病毒的周期性而出现和后退。 由于我们不能完全包含或去除COVID19，这种情况将一直持续到疫苗问世，并在未来两年内分发给全球数十亿人。

我知道这是一个非常黑暗模糊的愿景。 但是如果这是事实，我们应该保持理性的头脑并做好准备。 具体来说，作为创始人和投资者，我们应该考虑未来，我们的社会需要什么，什么将会改变，什么不会改变。

我将从简单的事情开始-人类基本需求不会改变，甚至永远不会改变。 人们仍然需要吃饭，居住，工作，社交，感到值得，被爱和被爱。

但是，很多事情将会改变，主要是我们如何交付/解决这些需求，即使在后COVID世界中并未完全重新构想。无论您是否同意，这种流行病都在迫使人类彻底改变我们的现状并重新审查我们的优先事项。

我坚信，，由于COVID19，我们可能会在几十年内看到一些大趋势。我将列出以下三个示例。

1.“家庭经济”将进一步渗透到我们的社会，从传统的离线经济中获取更多价值。

“家庭经济”类别并不是新事物，它主要由我们今天看到的互联网公司组成。美国的Netflix，Zoom，亚马逊，Doordash，Facebook，以及美团，ByteDance，阿里巴巴，中国的腾讯，都在大流行之前就成立了，并且都在顺风顺水。

但这还不是全部。某些“艰难”类别将被破解：杂货，高等教育，医疗保健，移动支付，云厨房，健身等。在大流行后的世界中，人们如何购买，学习，护理，支付，饮食和工作将会以更快的方式改变。

一个月的习惯养成之窗是非常有力的。就在2018/2019年全球B2C机会接近尾声之际，我希望我们会看到新一代的“在家”公司，这些公司将在未来几年内创建，并完全重新构想我们的方式生活。

大流行造成的“失败者”是传统经济，包括餐馆，购物中心，体育馆，办公场所等。他们的社会价值被挤出，必须寻找一个新的地方。这意味着“离线经济”要么必须更积极地拥抱数字化，要么与新产品竞争更加激烈。尽管人们普遍相信，我认为餐馆，剧院，航空公司不会消失。取而代之的是，他们将被“升级”，也许会更加“个性化”，以迎合一种新型的体验。这使我想到了第二个预测。

2.社交规范将会永远改变。未来面对面的时间将是“奢侈的”。

在可能长达两年的大流行之后的许多年里，我们将继续保持彼此的距离。在大多数社交环境中，握手可能不会发生。我们将开始看到面对面的会议，就像“豪华”的体验，只保留给我们所爱，关心和认为重要的人。

我所说的“豪华”并不意味着服务会很昂贵。它很可能是负担得起且极简的-这只是意味着从心理上讲，人们将为现场时间留出特殊的位置。他们希望它是独特的，精心计划的并且关于他们是谁。

我不知道这种新型服务将以何种格式和价格提供。而且我不知道如何利用技术来达到合理的规模，从而使更多的人能够享受它。但我知道会有需求。人们并会为此付费。

3.数字化和人工智能自动化将加速

在这种大流行期间（及之后），全球大多数企业（而且将继续）受到两个方面的压力。

首先，前端。随着消费者对数字体验的需求，公司将用更精简的技术堆栈（例如云，机器人）替换其“肥胖的基础设施”（例如物理空间，与人互动的员工）中的较大部分。例如，某些餐厅可能不需要租用完整的场地来为其顾客提供服务。相反，他们会在送货应用程序上开设商店。医师可能只会在非常有选择的基础上亲自看病人，并且大多数人对远程医疗服务感到满意。

在过去的十年中，我们已经看到这种消费者数字化趋势正在中国发生，例如送餐，远程医疗和移动支付。但是，看到美国终于开始进行转型将是一件令人着迷的事情。随着各行各业的公司切换到新的“互动界面”，将产生巨大的价值。

第二点，也许是更重要的一点，我们希望全世界的企业在后端-公司运营方面都面临挑战：例如，物流，制造，仓储，销售，市场营销，招聘，计划等。这意味着在接下来的几年中，经济将进一步承受下行压力，公司将不得不设计出一种更高效，自动化的方式来在后端进行操作，而同时其中许多公司被迫采用更数字化的前端。

对于企业软件公司而言，这是一个巨大的挑战和机遇。首先，它将推动B2B公司更多地展示其投资回报率。很好的“维生素” B2B解决方案将很快被洗掉。第二，就像病患者需要优质药物一样，公司客户更渴望体验和尝试新的解决方案，尤其是可以解决其转型难题的解决方案。但是这里要注意的是，您必须快速显示结果。

在后端，仅“数字化”或“接口更改”是不够的。例如，对于制造业来说，从来就不是制作数字化记录，而是如何使用该数字化信息来做出明智的决定，或者更好地实现某些任务的自动化以提高效率。我们看到像PlusOne Robotics，Kubit.ai这样的初创公司正在采用AI优先方法来通过自动化展示这种ROI，并且期望看到更多。

老实说，解决方案将继续发展，但是在企业领域，市场准备就绪是关键。在大流行后的世界中，全球大多数企业客户不仅准备就绪，而且需要一种新形式的软件或解决方案，以帮助实现业务任务的自动化。它超越了“数字化”或“移动到云”的范畴，它将使我们进入由AI和自动化支持的企业技术新时代。

最后一点的想法

像我们在我们之前的经历过饥荒，战争和大萧条的每一代人一样，我们正在经历属于我们这一代的危机。“危机”一词被形容为“危险和机遇”，非常完美地描绘了我们正在体验的经历。这是世界范围内的悲剧性事件，但它也是我们社会发展的有力催化剂， 改进并采用新的，更具反思性的规范当我们回顾人类历史时，我们总是走到另一端，比以往任何时候都更强大，更统一。

这一次并没有什么不同。