A parallel-universes dance — random thoughts on US-China over the next decade (series 2/2)5/20/2020 This is the article I had long intended to write. My last (2018) post on US-China became quickly dated because of the trade war in 2019 and then the pandemic outbreak in 2020. The situation is changing so fast that the whole world is merely trying to catch up. There is never a good time to write on this topic, so here it is.  Black Swans Just when we were grappling with the global economic impacts of the US-China trade war for the better part of 2019, no one had expected it was merely a rehearsal. We had not dared to predict that anything bigger would come. Came it did. A once-in-a-century pandemic that has, tragically taken over 120,000 lives, impacted millions in losing their jobs, is truly a Black Swan occurrence that will leave its mark on future generations. At a time like this, it’s important to be a student of history, so that we can get a better, if not a more holistic perspective on things. One may say that our past consists of Black Swan events. To list a few from recent to more distant ones within the last century -
You might be able to see where I’m going with this. Black Swan events are not always bad — they represent infrequent, unpredictable, major changes. Sometimes changes are for the better like the invention of the internet, but often are disruptive and can be detrimental to society as a whole. Yet we have shown the resilience of the human race, each and every time. And we have always learned and adopted something new from the experience. The COVID19 pandemic is a once-in-a-century event. One might say it’s a combination of 1918 flu (disease) + great depression / financial crisis (employment loss) + worldwide (war-like) defense. It’s nothing we have ever seen. So what does it mean for the world going forward? New World Order: the great decoupling accelerated by the COVID19 Our generation has enjoyed the tailwind of globalization over the past few decades. And now the pendulum seems to swing the other way. As I’m writing this, countries, including the US, China, Japan, and major European countries, have all adopted strict policies of flight travels. Noticeably, as each nation is scrambling to handle its own coronavirus crisis, we have unfortunately seen little global collaboration. Instead, we have witnessed mistrust, misinformation, scapegoating, and interfering. It’s disheartening for sure, but not surprising. Thanks to the tone set by the trade war, the US and China have started its painful decoupling procedure, followed by the world’s search for new leadership in the global stage. For someone like myself, a Chinese immigrant to the US, it feels like you are caught in the middle of divorcing parents. It has been messy, uncomfortable, and emotional. China and the US have very different political and societal structures. I can empathize on both sides, as a person who has spent a roughly equal amount of life in both countries. Amidst Covid19, the US and China demonstrated to the world the pros and cons of their systems — China, with the big government, showed impressive strength in containing and stopping the virus by rallying the entire nation’s resources behind one task. The US, with the democratic system and its current white house leadership, has shown the opposite — the lack of attention from the beginning and then the chaos during. However, the US system shines its advantages during the “peacetime” when it makes sure the decision power is not overly concentrated and (ideally) quality decisions come from thoughtful deliberations. It might be easy to fall into the heated debate on which system is better. But this post is not about that. I expect that both systems, just like Yin and Yang, can and will co-exist equally in the long foreseeable future. The keyword at issue here is “equally.” Future is past rolled into presence According to the chart below, over the past 1400 years, China had been the #1 for roughly 850 years in terms of global power (starting from 600 AD to 1250, then 1400 to 1600). And it’s no surprise to anyone who studies China’s history that China is coming up and “reclaiming” its global position. On the other hand, the US has been the world’s # 1 power for less than 100 years and is very anxious in retaining its global leadership. Since Trump’s election, the America-centric view has been boosted. The Covid19 development has only accelerated such trend and hardened the viewpoint of the populists. But it is a slippery slope. Closing the border may have short-term comfort, but the long-term damages are yet to come.  Credit: Ray Dalio https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/ China knows it fully because it had suffered from it. To the western world, China appears to be this “mysterious dragon” that just woke up and ready to take over. However, few realized that China was going through a painful nineteenth and twentieth centuries when trading prospered the rest of the world. For much of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, China was steadily declining, being fully ignorant of the emergence of the Netherlands and UK empires. Until the 19th century, China continued to see itself as the center of the world, with neighboring countries bowing to its Emperor. As time progressed, China became more closed up with uprising nationalism and smug complacency for centries, even as the western world was going through a major tech breakthrough, namely the Industrial Revolution in 1760. We all know what happened afterward. China was left behind for the following 200 years, was invaded many times, and has ever since attempted to catch up. History seems to be repeating itself on its early pattern, only this time in the US, not in China. While the US is focusing on its political fights and its close-up “America First” policies, the rest of the world, certainly China, is beaming with 5G, Clean Tech, and AI automation. This early trend ought to worry everyone. It is my hope that, with its democratic structure, the US will not follow the suit of old China. Hopefully, the 2020 election will help slow the swing of US nationalism and place the US in a non-hostile position with the world. In any case, we are likely to see a world moving forward with two “parallel universes.”
 We are certainly at a historic moment, and it would be fascinating to see how the “parallel universes” dance with each other (hopefully more peacefully) over the next decade. 下由谷歌翻译器翻译：
这是我长期以来打算写的文章。我在2018年写的关于中美的文章（2018年）由于2019年的贸易战而迅速过时，然后2020年爆发了大流行。形势变化如此之快，以至于全世界都在努力追赶。我觉得从来没有一个好时机写这个话题，那么就现在来写吧。 黑天鹅 就在我们为应对2019年大部分时间的中美贸易战对全球经济的影响而努力时，没有人想到这仅仅是一场排练。我们不敢预测会有更大的事情发生。 然后更大的事情发生了。一个百年一遇的大流行悲惨地夺走了12万条生命，影响了数百万人的失业，这是一次重大的黑天鹅事件，它将在后代留下印记。 在这样的时候，重要的是要学习历史，这样我们才能对事物有更好甚至更全面的认识。可以说我们历史是由黑天鹅事件组成的。列举上个世纪中从最近到较远的几个： 2016年：特朗普大选; 2008年：金融危机； 2001年：世界贸易中心袭击； 1991年：苏联解体； 1983年：互联网发明； 1945年：美国原子弹投掷- 二战结束； 1941年：珍珠港袭击； 1939年：第二次世界大战开始； 1929年：大萧条； 1918年：流感大流行； 1914年：第一次世界大战开始。 在过去的100年中，全世界至少经历了11次不可预测的重大事件-平均每10年发生一次。如果我们进一步拉长时间范围，是否可以将恐龙的灭绝算作是使人类崛起的巨型黑天鹅事件之一？我也许会更进一步地指出，地球和生命的创造本身是一种发生在数十亿年前的精美的低可能性现象。 您也许可以看到我想要说明什么。 黑天鹅事件并不总是坏事-它们代表着罕见，不可预测的重大变化。有时，更改就像互联网的发明一样好，但往往更多的时间，这些改变是有破坏性的，可能对整个社会有害。然而，我们每次都展示了人类的韧性。我们一直从经验中学到并采用新的东西。 COVID19大流行是百年一遇的事件。也许有人会说这是1918年流感（疾病）+大萧条/金融危机（就业损失）+全球（类似战争）防御的结合。这是我们从未见过的。 那么，这对世界前进意味着什么呢？ 新世界秩序：COVID19促进了巨大的脱钩进程 在过去的几十年中，我们这一代人享受了全球化的动力。现在，钟摆似乎正向相反方向摆动。在我撰写本文时，包括美国，中国，日本和主要欧洲国家在内的国家都已采取严格的飞行旅行政策。值得注意的是，由于每个国家都在努力应对自己的冠状病毒危机，因此不幸的是，我们几乎没有看到全球合作。相反，我们目睹了不信任，错误信息，替罪羊和干扰。 确实令人沮丧，但不足为奇。由于贸易战的基调，美国和中国开始了痛苦的脱钩程序，随后世界在全球舞台上寻找新的领导者。对于像我这样的一样的人来说，作为一个在中国出生的新美国移民，感觉就像您陷入了与父母离异的中间。这是一个凌乱，不舒服和情绪化的过程。 中美有着不同的政治和社会结构。作为一个在两国生活时间大致相等的人，我对两边都认为可以理解。在Covid19中，美国和中国向世界展示了其系统的利弊。-中国与大政府一起，通过将整个国家的资源集中在一项任务之后，在遏制和阻止该病毒方面表现出了令人印象深刻的力量。 具有民主制度和现任白宫领导权的美国已经表现出相反的情况-从一开始就缺乏关注，然后在此期间却引起混乱。但是，美国系统在“和平时期”确保其决策权不会过于集中并且（理想情况下）质量决策来自周密的审议，从而发挥了其优势。 我们可能容易陷入关于哪种系统更好的激烈辩论。但是这篇文章不是关于这个的。我认为这两种制度就像像阴和阳一样，这两个系统在可以预见的将来可以并且将平等共存。 这里的关键字是“平等”。 未来是现在的过去叠加式 根据下面的图表，在过去的1400年中，就全球力量而言（从公元600年到1250年，然后是1400年到1600年），中国一直是世界力量的第一。对于研究中国历史的任何人来说，中国正在崛起并“夺回”其全球地位也就不足为奇了。另一方面，在过去不到100年的时间里，美国是世界第一大国，并且非常渴望保留其全球领导地位。自特朗普当选以来，以美国为中心的观点得到了提振。 Covid19的发展只是加速了这种趋势，并强化了民粹主义者的观点。但这是一个湿滑的斜坡。关闭边界可能会带来短期的舒适感，但长期的损害尚未到来。 中国完全了解它，因为它遭受过其带来的痛苦。在西方世界，中国似乎是刚刚醒来并准备接手的“神秘巨龙”。然而，很少有人意识到，当贸易繁荣到世界其他地区时，中国正经历一个痛苦的十九世纪和二十世纪。在十七，十八世纪的大部分时间里，中国一直在不断下降，完全不了解荷兰和英国帝国的崛起。 直到19世纪，中国一直将自己视为世界中心，周边国家向其皇帝鞠躬。随着时间的流逝，即使西方世界正在经历一项重大的技术突破，即1760年的工业革命，中国也变得更加封闭起来，内部更是有民族主义和自满自大。在随后的200年中，中国被抛在后面，被多次入侵，从那时起就一直试图追赶。 历史似乎正在以其早期模式重演，仅这次是在美国，而不是在中国。尽管美国将重点放在政治斗争和特写的“美国优先”政策上，但世界其他国家（尤其中国）也正在着手5G，清洁能源和AI自动化。这种早期的趋势应该让每个人都担心。 我希望美国凭借其民主结构不会仿效旧中国的做法。希望2020年大选将有助于减缓美国民族主义的步伐，并使美国与世界保持不敌对的立场。 无论如何，我们很可能会看到一个带有两个“平行宇宙”的世界。 1）在政治方面，一个是“自下而上”的小政府国家，人口为3亿，另一个是“自上而下”的大政府国家，人口为14亿。 2）在经济方面，一个国家的GDP为21万亿美元，另一个为14万亿美元，但仍在稳定增长。预计到2023年，这一差距将大大缩小，并在2030年完全消除。但是，我怀疑由于两国对流感大流行的不同处理，这种差距可能会更早地出现。 3）在创新方面，一个主导了基础技术研究（半导体，互联网，AI算法等），另一个则在技术应用（制造，移动支付和面部识别等）上保持敏捷。 我们无疑处于历史性时刻，在接下来的十年中看到“平行宇宙”如何彼此（希望更加和平地）共舞会非常有意思。
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 Like everyone else, I’ve been spending a fair amount of time trying to understand the length and impacts of this pandemic. (I will try to write COVID19’s impact on the new world order in a separate post) The “hammer and dance” First, let’s talk about duration. I will be the first to admit that a lot of us were in the phase of denial, thinking that “oh, it’s an outbreak in China” and “oh, it will last only a few months, and things will be back to normal soon.” But in reality, we will likely be living in this “hammer and dance” dynamics for the next couple of years.  At a high level, what the researchers present here is that our social activity will emerge and retreat based on the cyclicality of the virus. Since we can not completely contain or remove COVID19, the situation will continue until the vaccine comes out and is distributed to billions of people worldwide for the next two years.  It’s a very dim vision, I know. But if it’s the truth, we should keep a rational mind and prepare ahead. Specifically, as founders and investors, we should be thinking about the future, what our society needs in which what will change, and what will not.  I will start with something simple — things that won’t change, perhaps never will — the basic human needs. People still need to eat, shelter, work, socialize, feel worthy, love, and be loved. However, a lot will change, mainly how we deliver/resolve those needs, if not entirely reimagined in the post-COVID world. Whether you agree with it or not, the pandemic is forcing humanity to overhaul our status quo and to reexamine our priorities. In a way that’s not trying to predict the future, I’m convinced that we are likely to see a few megatrends playing out in the few decades owing to COVID19. I will list the following three as examples. 1. The “stay-at-home economy” would further penetrate our society, taking more values away from the conventional offline economy. The “stay-at-home economy” category is not new — it consists mostly of the internet companies we see today. Netflix, Zoom, Amazon, Doordash, Facebook in the US, along with Meituan, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent in China, were all founded before the pandemics and are all taking the tailwinds. But that’s not all. Some of the “tougher” categories would be cracked: Grocery, higher education, healthcare, mobile payment, cloud-kitchen, fitness, etc. In a post-pandemic world, how people buy, learn, care, pay, eat, and work out will be changed in an accelerated fashion. A months-long window of habit-forming is a powerful thing. Just when the global B2C opportunities were nearing to the tail end in 2018 /2019, I expect we might see a new breed of “stay-at-home” companies that will be created in the next few years and completely reimagine the way that we live. The “losers” owing to the pandemics are the traditional economy consisting of restaurants, shopping malls, gyms, office spaces, and so on. Their values are being squeezed out and will have to find a new place to go. What this means is that the “offline economy” will either have to embrace the digitalization more aggressively or compete harder with new offerings. I don’t think restaurants, theaters, airlines would go away, despite popular beliefs. Instead, they would be “upgraded,” perhaps much more “personalized,” catering for a new type of experience. That takes me to my second prediction. 2. Social norms will never be the same. In-person time will be “luxurious.” Many years following the potentially two-year-long pandemic, we will continue to keep our distance with each other. Handshaking is likely not going to happen in most social settings. We will start to see in-person meetings much like a “luxurious” experience, reserving it only to those we love, care for, and consider important. By “luxurious,” I don’t mean the service will be expensive; it may very well be affordable and minimalist — it just means that psychologically, people are going to set aside a special place for the in-person time. And they would want it to be unique, well planned, and about who they are. I don’t know what format and at what price this new type of service will be offered. And I don’t know how technology would be leveraged to achieve a reasonable scale such that more people will be able to enjoy it. But I know there will be needs for it. And people will pay for it. 3. Digitalization and AI automation will be accelerated During (and after) this pandemic, most enterprises worldwide are (and will continue to be) pressured on two ends. First, the frontend. Following consumers’ demand for digital experience, companies will be replacing a more considerable portion of their “fat infrastructure” (e.g., physical space, human-interacting staff) with leaner tech stacks (e.g., cloud, bots). For instance, certain restaurants might not need to rent a full venue to serve their customers. Instead, they would open shops on delivery apps. Physicians might only see patients in person on a very selected basis, with most people comfortable with telehealth service going forward. We have seen this consumer digitization trend taking place in China over the past ten years in areas like food delivery, remote health, and mobile payment. However, it would be fascinating to see the US is finally getting on the transformation. Tremendous values will be generated as companies in various verticals are switching to a new “interface.” Second — probably a more important point — we would expect businesses worldwide to be challenged on the backend- the company operation side: e.g., logistics, manufacturing, warehousing, sales, marketing, recruiting, planning, etc. What it means is that as the economy takes on further downward pressure over the next few years, companies will have to work out a more efficient, automated way to operate on the backend, *while* many of them are forced to adopt a more digital frontend. This represents a significant challenge and opportunity for enterprise software companies. For one, it will push B2B companies to demonstrate their ROI even more. The nice-to-have “vitamin” B2B solutions would be washed out, quickly. And two, just like a sick patient in need of good medicine, corporate customers are more eager to experience and try new solutions, particularly solutions that can solve their transformation dilemma. But the catch here is that you will have to show results quickly. On the backend, a mere “digitalization” or “change of the interface” is not enough. For example, with manufacturing, it has never been about making digitalized records but rather how to use that digitalized information to make intelligent decisions, or better yet to automate certain tasks so that efficiency can be created. We are seeing startups like PlusOne Robotics, Kubit.ai that are taking an AI-first approach to demonstrate such ROI through automation, and will expect to see more. In all honesty, the solutions will continue to come and evolve, but in the enterprise space, market readiness is the key. In a post-pandemic world, most enterprise customers worldwide will not only be ready but will demand a new form of software or solutions that will help with the automation of business tasks. It goes beyond “digitalizing” or “moving to the cloud,” it will push us into a new era of enterprise tech that is enabled by AI and automation. Parting Thoughts Like every generation ahead of us who have gone through famine, wars, and the Great Depression, we are experiencing our own crisis. In Chinese, crisis (危机）is written as “danger and opportunity” in a single word. It cannot describe what we are going through any better. It is a tragic occurrence worldwide, but it’s also a forceful catalyst for our society to evolve, improve, and adopt a new, more reflective norm. When we look at humanity’s history, we have always come out the other end, stronger and more unified than ever before. And this time is no different. 以下由谷歌翻译器翻译：
像其他所有人一样，我一直在花大量的时间试图了解这种流行病的持续时间和影响。 （我将在另一篇文章中尝试写出COVID19对新世界秩序的影响） “锤子与舞蹈” 首先，让我们谈谈持续时间。 我将是第一个承认我们很多人处于否认状态的人，认为“哦，这是中国的爆发”和“哦，它只会持续几个月，而一切很快就会恢复正常” 。” 但实际上，未来几年我们可能会生活在这种“锤子和舞蹈”的动态中。 从较高的层次上讲，研究人员在这里的展现的是，我们的社会活动将根据病毒的周期性而出现和后退。 由于我们不能完全包含或去除COVID19，这种情况将一直持续到疫苗问世，并在未来两年内分发给全球数十亿人。 我知道这是一个非常黑暗模糊的愿景。 但是如果这是事实，我们应该保持理性的头脑并做好准备。 具体来说，作为创始人和投资者，我们应该考虑未来，我们的社会需要什么，什么将会改变，什么不会改变。 我将从简单的事情开始-人类基本需求不会改变，甚至永远不会改变。 人们仍然需要吃饭，居住，工作，社交，感到值得，被爱和被爱。 但是，很多事情将会改变，主要是我们如何交付/解决这些需求，即使在后COVID世界中并未完全重新构想。无论您是否同意，这种流行病都在迫使人类彻底改变我们的现状并重新审查我们的优先事项。 我坚信，，由于COVID19，我们可能会在几十年内看到一些大趋势。我将列出以下三个示例。 1.“家庭经济”将进一步渗透到我们的社会，从传统的离线经济中获取更多价值。 “家庭经济”类别并不是新事物，它主要由我们今天看到的互联网公司组成。美国的Netflix，Zoom，亚马逊，Doordash，Facebook，以及美团，ByteDance，阿里巴巴，中国的腾讯，都在大流行之前就成立了，并且都在顺风顺水。 但这还不是全部。某些“艰难”类别将被破解：杂货，高等教育，医疗保健，移动支付，云厨房，健身等。在大流行后的世界中，人们如何购买，学习，护理，支付，饮食和工作将会以更快的方式改变。 一个月的习惯养成之窗是非常有力的。就在2018/2019年全球B2C机会接近尾声之际，我希望我们会看到新一代的“在家”公司，这些公司将在未来几年内创建，并完全重新构想我们的方式生活。 大流行造成的“失败者”是传统经济，包括餐馆，购物中心，体育馆，办公场所等。他们的社会价值被挤出，必须寻找一个新的地方。这意味着“离线经济”要么必须更积极地拥抱数字化，要么与新产品竞争更加激烈。尽管人们普遍相信，我认为餐馆，剧院，航空公司不会消失。取而代之的是，他们将被“升级”，也许会更加“个性化”，以迎合一种新型的体验。这使我想到了第二个预测。 2.社交规范将会永远改变。未来面对面的时间将是“奢侈的”。 在可能长达两年的大流行之后的许多年里，我们将继续保持彼此的距离。在大多数社交环境中，握手可能不会发生。我们将开始看到面对面的会议，就像“豪华”的体验，只保留给我们所爱，关心和认为重要的人。 我所说的“豪华”并不意味着服务会很昂贵。它很可能是负担得起且极简的-这只是意味着从心理上讲，人们将为现场时间留出特殊的位置。他们希望它是独特的，精心计划的并且关于他们是谁。 我不知道这种新型服务将以何种格式和价格提供。而且我不知道如何利用技术来达到合理的规模，从而使更多的人能够享受它。但我知道会有需求。人们并会为此付费。 3.数字化和人工智能自动化将加速 在这种大流行期间（及之后），全球大多数企业（而且将继续）受到两个方面的压力。 首先，前端。随着消费者对数字体验的需求，公司将用更精简的技术堆栈（例如云，机器人）替换其“肥胖的基础设施”（例如物理空间，与人互动的员工）中的较大部分。例如，某些餐厅可能不需要租用完整的场地来为其顾客提供服务。相反，他们会在送货应用程序上开设商店。医师可能只会在非常有选择的基础上亲自看病人，并且大多数人对远程医疗服务感到满意。 在过去的十年中，我们已经看到这种消费者数字化趋势正在中国发生，例如送餐，远程医疗和移动支付。但是，看到美国终于开始进行转型将是一件令人着迷的事情。随着各行各业的公司切换到新的“互动界面”，将产生巨大的价值。 第二点，也许是更重要的一点，我们希望全世界的企业在后端-公司运营方面都面临挑战：例如，物流，制造，仓储，销售，市场营销，招聘，计划等。这意味着在接下来的几年中，经济将进一步承受下行压力，公司将不得不设计出一种更高效，自动化的方式来在后端进行操作，而同时其中许多公司被迫采用更数字化的前端。 对于企业软件公司而言，这是一个巨大的挑战和机遇。首先，它将推动B2B公司更多地展示其投资回报率。很好的“维生素” B2B解决方案将很快被洗掉。第二，就像病患者需要优质药物一样，公司客户更渴望体验和尝试新的解决方案，尤其是可以解决其转型难题的解决方案。但是这里要注意的是，您必须快速显示结果。 在后端，仅“数字化”或“接口更改”是不够的。例如，对于制造业来说，从来就不是制作数字化记录，而是如何使用该数字化信息来做出明智的决定，或者更好地实现某些任务的自动化以提高效率。我们看到像PlusOne Robotics，Kubit.ai这样的初创公司正在采用AI优先方法来通过自动化展示这种ROI，并且期望看到更多。 老实说，解决方案将继续发展，但是在企业领域，市场准备就绪是关键。在大流行后的世界中，全球大多数企业客户不仅准备就绪，而且需要一种新形式的软件或解决方案，以帮助实现业务任务的自动化。它超越了“数字化”或“移动到云”的范畴，它将使我们进入由AI和自动化支持的企业技术新时代。 最后一点的想法 像我们在我们之前的经历过饥荒，战争和大萧条的每一代人一样，我们正在经历属于我们这一代的危机。“危机”一词被形容为“危险和机遇”，非常完美地描绘了我们正在体验的经历。这是世界范围内的悲剧性事件，但它也是我们社会发展的有力催化剂， 改进并采用新的，更具反思性的规范当我们回顾人类历史时，我们总是走到另一端，比以往任何时候都更强大，更统一。 这一次并没有什么不同。 2020 has caught everyone by surprise. First, the coronavirus emerged and China was taking swift action in shutting down cities but the world was paying little attention. Then the virus spread and the global economy ground to a halt. Now we are all scrambling to adjust ourselves to the new reality that is mixed with fear and anxiety. It might be easy to surrender ourselves to the overwhelming news and the uncertainties to the future. But if history is of any guide to us, we know that major crises are usually filled with mega opportunities, and that things will return to normal one day. But for now, enter social distancing. You have nowhere to go but to stay at home, with yourself. And our minds are not used to that. We were used to grabbing morning coffee with our friends, chatting with the coworkers during the day, and cuddling with the loved ones at night. And now, suddenly, we stare at the mirror and the mirror stares back. We are by ourselves. So quiet. Even though I still fill my schedule with back-to-back conference calls but it's just not the same. Somewhere inside me keeps asking me the question: so what truly matters to you. The COVID19 outbreak provided us the opportunity to take a pause and re-evaluate our priorities. I had the chance to think about several issues in life since I had been working from home for the last week. To remind my future self on what is important and what is not, I want to compose them here: Health and families come number one. Without health and families, the future does not matter. Early this year, I already lost my grandma and I certainly want to see myself and my families stay healthy. Helping others matters. It takes courage to go beyond our egocentric selves and to care for others. In the past, it was easy to brush it away by simply saying that I was too busy but during this crisis, witnessing countless medical professionals and volunteers stepping up had a significant impact on me. We all need other people's help one day. It's all for one and one for all. Humanity as one. In a crisis, it's easy for us to turn against each other out of fear and hatred, but let's resist that. The world does not need one or two politicians to lead us. But instead, all of us can start from within to calm the fear and start to embrace the uncertainties. As a human race, we have to reckon the damages we have done to the environment, other animals and the earth. As we all become adults, we have long put aside our childhood ambitions to become astronauts or to save the earth. But maybe it's time we all pick it up. Do your job, but with a bigger goal. Each of us has a role to play in this society. The once-in-a-century crisis offered us the opportunity to examine our contribution to the world and, once again re-appreciate the things we take for granted. Many restaurants we visit are now closed. The over-talkative barber who we once felt overwhelming is now much missed. The noisy bars across the street are not filled with dreadful emptiness. As a generation who grew up without the Great Depression or severe property, we think the world is always up-to-the-right, with many services available to us, just one click away. The so-far weeks-long social distancing teaches us the lesson of valuing other people's work and rethinking of our own. Walkaways I hope when the whole thing is over, we come out of the other end much stronger. Much more energized in building the common future. I certainly am. I know that after the pandemic passes, the world will be the same, but yet not the same. It is often said that crises are embedded with opportunities. I'm a true believer in that. As a VC, in a way as a societal resource allocator, I will be even more excited to find the next opportunities with resilient founders. Our world economy mirrors nature. New species and vibrant ecosystems only emerge after a devastating storm. We are in the midst of that. I'm worried as anybody else, but I'm ever optimistic about the future.  Nemo practicing social distancing - 3/21/2020  Field trip with grandma My grandmother and I were really close together. She raised me mostly and had made me who I am. She was diagnosed with late-stage liver cancer in late December 2019, and we had been told there is not much time left. Mom called me and was weeping on the phone, telling me the news. I asked to video chat with grandma. She was lying on the bed, looking tired, but as usual, her voice was loud. She managed to smile while we were talking somehow. Looking back now, she must have made an enormous effort not to let me worry. At that time, I was in Europe, planning to return for the CES and other business meetings in the States. After the call, I felt like there might a bit more time left. Not much, but probably enough to wrap up my US business commitments before returning to China. At least that’s what I had thought. My mom called again one day later and said grandma wanted to see me. I knew it was different now. Over the years, Grandma was always considerate about my job, my sleep, and even my diet. She must have been suffering from the condition. So I booked a last-minute flight, leaving the very next day for China. From the Netherlands to my home town in Fujian, as it turned out, it’s about 22 hours away by flight. During those long hours, I was immersing myself in the past. I couldn’t recall much of my early childhood, but I can always remember the bits about grandma and me. She loved kissing me on the forehead, even as I grew taller and as she appeared smaller. Some memories were so vivid they were just there in front of me when I closed my eyes, like a movie playback. To make me eat my food when I was about five years old, grandma would make up stories about the shapes of food such as pickles: I was made to believe that some were shaped like Monkey King, and some were like evil monsters — so that a five-year-old boy would find it interesting to eat more. And believe me, I had “destroyed” a lot of those kings and evil monsters. And I was a chubby kid.  Grandma liked to save food, particularly for me. When I was a kid, she always kept me tons of cookies and treats. And I’d shamelessly indulge myself each time I visited her. Over the years, grandma still managed to save snacks for me, even though I am a grown-up man and no longer even enjoy snacks. She would some times hand me molded snacks with a happy face, as she couldn’t see the expiration date well. Each time, I’d just laugh and tell her that’s not healthy. She then brings the snacks closer to her eyes and mumbles, “how weird, why it went bad quickly.” Visibly disappointed, she had to throw away food. Grandma was fond of music. She was a very outgoing person. She also enjoyed teaching people to dance. There were a lot of memories where I was her reluctant, awkward dance partner. Every time I messed up, she would laugh and say to me, “Silly, this is so simple…. see, just follow me like this…” Memories like this concluded many summer evenings when I was a child. Grandma was born in 1937, before the CCP took over China. Being fierce and brave, She had gone through WWII, the Japanese invasion, the Great Chinese Famine, and then the Cultural Revolution. In my memories of her, grandma had always been a very optimistic person too. She always said, “No difficulty is too big to overcome. Things are going to pass, and life will go on.” I heard she said things like that over the years.  My grandma was one of the very first women who attended college before the Cultural Revolution. She was smart and bold. Grandma told me saddening stories about the Cultural Revolution and how she and my grandpa were persecuted just because they were intellectuals. She told me there were times when the “Red Guards” would just appear in our house and ask to take grandpa out for a “humiliation walk.” Many people committed suicide due to the emotional and physical suffering. But my grandparents survived. Grandma usually ended the stories with some conclusion like: “Things are going to pass, and life will go on,” as it was just a little chapter of her life. After the Cultural Revolution, grandma became a math teacher in high school and community college. She loved teaching me math too! But as a young kid, I had always disliked these “after-school math sessions”. I wanted to play soccer, basketball, or just fool around with my little friends. So I tried to find ways. Grandma didn’t have good eyesight. She had to wear glasses when trying to look for things. Most of the time, she just had a good sense of where things were. But it’s hard to track a kid who was determined to sneak out and play. My mom always fondly recalled the stories where I’d sneak out of the house and then only to surprise grandma later when she was yelling my name at the balcony. I wouldn’t say that happened many times, but indeed for the one time I can remember, Grandma was surprised and then rushed me to the dining table half-blaming, half-laughing. It was just like yesterday. Then I went abroad. Grandma and I would talk over the phone or even video chat from time to time, but we hadn’t been spending much time together. Sometimes I would manage to visit my home town and grandma once a year but often it was usually once every few years. Each time when she saw me, she was so excited, hugging me tight, just like a little kid. The saying seems true — as you’ve grown up to be an adult, your parents and grandparents become like kids.  Each time when I’m home, grandma would give me a small piece of paper where she wrote down her “new friends” numbers and ask me to input them to the phone. Without me asking, she usually fondly told me where she made these friends, who they were, and all the gossips that related to it. There were times when I was impatient and didn’t heed the stories. But she didn’t mind — she was just happy to talk to me. Now looking back, grandma must have waited a long time to tell me all the tales of her new friends. Much like when I was in kindergarten, eagerly waiting to share my day. As I am writing this, all of the fond memories are floating before my eyes. I am incredibly grateful for having such a caring grandma over the last 30 plus years. She had made me who I am. Thank you; for the unconditional love that you had given me. Thank you; for demonstrating what optimism looks like in the most challenging life situation. Thank you; for teaching me how to be a courageous person, just like you.  My grandma passed away on January 5th, 2020, after fighting late-stage liver cancer. I love you, grandma. Rest in peace. As I'm writing this, I just finished a long email with a startup founder. This startup has a stellar team, and they quickly realized what didn't work. The company is going through a pivot. The CEO and I have been on the phone, on the email over the past few months, during which we have discussed, tested, and debated no less than five ideas.
I will be the first one to admit that, at times, as a VC/ advisor, it's tempting to jump in and offer one's own idea. But that's not the right way to do it. For one, VCs are generally good at observing the macro trends and betting on it - but terrible at originating great ideas. If we look at the iconic consumer tech companies over the past decades - Netflix, Uber, Airbnb, Twitter, Snap, TikTok, etc - none of those startup ideas come from VCs. Almost 100% of the time, these ideas were products of founders' own life experience and insights, which could be very different from a typical Sand Hill VC. That's why when the majority of great consumer companies get started, they had the most challenging time to convince others to invest. On the contrary, consumer startups who had an effortless time to raise money early on - thanks to VC hype - often turn out to be living short of the expectation and running of gas in the long term. Secondly, VCs do play an important role and add value to a company's early life. Investors usually have the privilege to observe the macro market and study the ever-evolving dynamics by comparing multiple companies and tech. But VCs have to be very thoughtful about how an investor's insights can be translated into a company's actions. Over the past 10+ years as an investor, I've shared boards with both excellent and mediocre VCs. I learned that a good VC tends to ask great questions to provoke new thinkings from founders, whereas a bad one tends to force-feed his / her thoughts into the company. During a startup pivot, the dynamics could be confusing and sometimes frustrating. And that's when a great founder / VC partnership is needed. Started about last year, I began working out. Although I went to the gym in college now and then, I completely dropped it after I started working professionally. I was so busy with everything else that I forgot to take care of my body. So around mid last year, I was changing to a new platform at the time, and it came with the stress of further adjustment.
I felt that I needed to take care of my body better. I needed a change. At first, my weight-lift routine started with only 15 minutes. No more, no less. I told myself that that’s all I’ve got per day. As you can imagine, 15 minutes pass very fast and it sort of makes it fun because I WANTED to work out more. Little did I know, with a small habit I could easily stick to, I was building strength and resilience. And I got better too. From 15 minutes, I finally allowed myself to work out for 30 minutes. And now I find myself easily spend 1.5 - 2 hours in the gym while listening to the music/podcast that I enjoyed. Not only the 15-minutes starting point empowered me to take care of my body. I now eat better too. And I stress less. Looking back, I’m grateful for the small initiative I made last year, and modest progress does matter.  As I’m writing this, the president of the United States has been sending out tweets that he claimed as “not racist.” Of course, it has stirred many debates - from the ones who are deeply offended and from the ones who are defending the president. As a first-generation immigrant who was sworn in when Obama was in office, I’m very disturbed and offended by Trump’s words and behavior. I was born in China, though not an “sh*t hole” country in Trump’s list (yet), but I can understand what “go back to your country” mean. They are the words of “us v.s. them” and they are words of division.
America was built by immigrants from the founding time of this nation to the modern age of US's tech leadership. And it was exactly the fundamental valuing of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” that draws many immigrants to this country, including myself. However, unlike many other immigrants, I have been a lucky one. I got the chance to receive a full education in the US, not have to work in hard labor, and to have met and worked with many wonderful people in the US. On a day to day basis, I meet entrepreneurs from all over the world who come to Silicon Valley to pursue their dreams. Some are foreigners / soon-to-be immigrants, and many are US founders who are first or second or third generations of immigrants. They might be holding different passports, but they have one thing in common: they are determined in life. They are convinced that they are changing the world. Changes can be scary - even the positive ones. Just like many progress have taken place in human history. The world is moving towards a place of unity, not division. And we must embrace that. Fundamentally, no matter where we come from, we all want the same thing in life - that in 50 years, 100 years, our children and our children’s children are living in a clean world that has peace, happiness, and prosperity. And we can only achieve that by embracing the human race as one.  I was invited for a panel on cross-border A.I. along with Lu Gang, Founder of Techcrunch China and Sophie Yao at Fenox Ventures. We discussed many topics, including how over-valued A.I companies have been due to the hype of the space. It quite predictable to see all of us agreed that investors need to very cautious in investing in today’s AI companies. However, it’s worthwhile to point out that we are at a unique time and space where A.I. is packaged just right for its commercial applications. And the packaging is everything. Mobile internet was talked about and being invested in as early as the late 90’s but none was viable until the wireless speed caught up and the iPhone showed up in the late 2000s. Similarly, A.I. is not a new thing. It was talked about roughly 40 years ago as an academic topic. But not until decades later when a) data accumulated to a high volume for A.I. training and b) cloud/ AI computing advanced further, it is now possible to have A.I. “package ready.” Ready to be efficient, accurate and invisible for the main applications. I often say that the startup ecosystems in China and the US are very much like Yin and Yan. They are parts of the global innovation hub but they provide different flavors. It’s the same with A.I. innovations. The US’s A.I. companies often come from top universities such as M.I.T, CMU, Stanford and Berkeley. We have seen some incredible innovations coming from these campuses/ labs. These companies are backed by well-known VCs, doing frontier A.I. researches and related breakthrough tech.  On the other side of the world, China’s A.I. companies are good at figuring out business applications for A.I tech. Look at SenseTime (TCL Capital is an investor), Face++ and Bytedance — all three companies utilize AI in true commercial use cases and gain business traction because of it. More importantly, China, being a huge market it is, seems to be more willing and quicker to adopt newer tech and bring it to scale. Another factor is the speed to gain data cost-effectively and at scale. Due to regulation and culture differences, China’s A.I. companies seem to have a leg up here too.
China is in at a unique crossroad of the history in that — on one side, China still craves for top talents and deep researches to fuel such tech needs; on the other side, China is experiencing a societal upgrade where the economy is shifting from labor-heavy production economy to a high-tech economy. As cross-border investors, we are at a very unique timing in the global tech evolution. The US and Silicon Valley will continue to be the center of gravity of tech innovation, as it always has been. However, just perhaps, the next Google and Facebook will be more global, more AI-driven, and may be created in China. YC made its bet in China by convincing Lu Qi to found and run YC China. I think that’s a brilliant move. The optimistic side of me is very intrigued to see how the next iconic A.I. companies are founded in this new era global economy. That will be the topic of the next post… I just returned from a two-week long business trip from China. It felt like it has been two months. In a good way.  me burning off the carbs with a shared bike A lot of activities were jammed in those 14 days. Starting with speaking at SLUSH conference in Shanghai to meeting many China entrepreneurs, the trip was packed with much energy and many late-night meetings (and many high-carb meals!) It was first formally introduced to the valley community via Sequoia’s Mike Moritz article on China earlier this year. It was controversial and I understand why. China shares a very different work culture than the US, in that it is (still) very top-down driven with a blurred line between work and personal life. For example, it’s no secret that in China, people conduct business conversations over after-work meals and over Wechat. As a result, the business response cycle is much faster. However, as a regular tech worker in China, it’s hard to take a real break. In addition, on a higher level, China has the so-called 996 (9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week), which I heard it’s now evolved into 007 (0 am to 0 am, 7 days a week). I think that’s just too much and it compromises productivity. But many companies are doing it. You can perhaps interpret it from two angles:
Which one is it? Probably China has both. And the next Google, next Uber for China will have to come from the companies who view work from the 2nd angle. Just like how the valley has been over the past decades. "You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future." — Steve Jobs I’ve been thinking about the past a lot lately. Some meaningful events of the past often define who we are today. I read two (old) books last year and this year. One is called “eboys” by Randall E. Stross and the other is “Startup” by Jerry Kaplan. Both are fascinating stories — the former is about starting the legendary VC firm Benchmark while the latter is about starting the first “pen computing” industry and lessons learned. Both stories took place during 1980s to 1990s. Strangely enough, I can relate to the tech background of both stories, even though I was half the earth away. In mid 1990s, my parents, both business persons, were among first ones in China to adopt the pen-computing “palm assistant” — I couldn’t remember the exact brand or name but I recall how cool it was that I could write on the device and it would just recognize the letter that I draw. Of course, most of the time, I used it to play simple games like Hangman Words, which I never mastered. In late 1990s, not too long after Jack Ma made his first visit to the US, China was embracing its first wave of internet. Again, my parents were among the very few who were willing to spend 10,000 RMB (roughly $2,000 USD) at the time to buy a personal computer — a Lenovo desktop. To put things in perspective, 10,000 RMB equated to roughly 5 months of salaries in the small town where we lived. It was a BIG investment. So big that dad was at times paranoid and insisted that we keep the “computer room” clean so that it would not catch “viruses.”  This is a 3D program by Lenovo to help people understand programs better. One might say it’s the first VR program in the 90s. Nonetheless, since I can’t find the real photo of my computer, this one should do the justice — and yes, I do usually paint while I work on my computer stuff, just as the pic showed :) I loved my first computer. I loved that you can simply “dial-up” and be connected to the world.  Cool Dial Up interface — after you hit “Connect”, it starts to make noise as if you were dialing into space From there, I joined BBS (Reddit of stone age if you will), feeling like a big shot. I created by my own email address, exchanging “deep thoughts” with people who I had never met. I learned to program my first website and showed it to my mom — she was so proud that she just keep refreshing my site to help me boost up my “visitor count number.” (thanks mom!) Little did I know that I was so fortunate being able to play with a computer, being able to connect to the internet at a very young age. Little did I know that from there, I would commit my career and the rest of life time to technology. Looking back now, those dots were connected beautifully. To that, I’m thankful. |
